Finishing off what I started in the first and second posts, now we will work in the cover saves.  For the Frag missiles, this is fairly trivial since you just figure the amount of cover and if it is higher than the armor save, substitute it in.  Which means #1 our T3/6+ who normally gets no save now becomes the same as a T3/4+ in 4+ cover.

The biggest change is for the Krak missiles since instead of getting a free ride past the armor saves, it now has to deal with a cover save.  Note that invulnerable saves fit in here also, so that the charts can be figured against things like Chaos Demons who seem to have lots of units with nothing but IS.  I'm going to change the format of the list a bit, it will still be the same twelve points, but  I'm not going to break down the "to wound" and "to save" numbers, but simply give the models needed to hit for each line.  Unfortunately, I haven't figured an easy way to put a table in here.

This is supplement to the first post.  I did it based on using Cyclone and Typhoon Missile Launchers, but the plain Missile Launcher uses the same munitions except it is Heavy 1 instead of Heavy 2.  So the break points might be different and instead of cluttering up that post, I simply replicated the twelve combinations of Toughness and Armor Saves with only 1 shot.

One of the things that I want to get a better grasp on is the difference for our Cyclones and Typhoons on when to use the Krak or just blast with Frags.  Now the first case is simple: If it is a vehicle, you have to Krak it and Frags don't do the job.  However, what do we do with the various enemies we oppose?

This should doable with the Mathhammer, so let's see.  First, skip Terminators and any other 2+ save units because that gets more tricky.  Secondly, lets discard the possibility of stray Invulnerable or Cover saves to get the initial numbers since they will be the easiest to figure back in.  Third, since I'm working with two ST8 AP3 shots from each launcher when using Krak and limiting the question to AS 3+, I can calculate the number of models hit by Frags to cause the same average amount of killing.  Fourthly I'll be limiting myself to T3-5 since those are the most common toughness values of  most non-vehicle models and I mainly included T5 because there are a peppering of them in almost all armies and because that is about the limit of the effectiveness of Frags. 

The problem with both of these lists is that they take advantage of the "lead squad" vs. "attached to squad" trick.

1    Emperor's Champion – Accept Any Challenge, No Matter The Odds [140]
1    Assault Terminator (3xTLC, 2xTH/SS, Furious Charge) [215]
1    Venerable Dreadnought (TLLC/HF/DCCW, EA, Tank Hunter) [170]
1    Terminator (2xCyclone ML/SB/PF, 3xSB/PF, Tank Hunter)  [265]
5    Crusader (5/0, Melta, Pod-SB)  [600]
2    Castellan, SS/LC, Tank Hunter  [216]
2    Terminator Cmd (2xCML/SB/PF, 1xSB/PF, 1xSS/PW), Tank Hunter  [474]
6    Land Speeder Typhoon (HB/Typhoon ML)  [420]
Total    4xTH-CML, 2xCML, 1xTH-TLLC, 6xTML, 6xHB        [2500]

In both cases these lists trade out one of the Elite Terminator squads to help finance a pair of HQ Terminator squads, it gives more LR dakka plus more resilient assault power since the HQ Terms are both built with a pair of Storm Shields.  This one is more slightly more shooty since it has the TH-TLLC Venerable Dreadnought which gives it seven (7) discrete 48" shooting units.  The major complaint I might see is the lack of fast Multimelta firepower.  Also, if I have to end up buying Terminator armor for the Castellans, then it is going to hurt by reducing the Castellans down to SS/PW and lose the SS from the Sgt, but he gets his storm bolter back.

For the other variation of the list:
1    Emperor's Champion – Accept Any Challenge, No Matter The Odds [140]
1    Assault Terminator (3xTLC, 2xTH/SS, Furious Charge) [215]
1    Terminator (2xCyclone ML/SB/PF, 2xSB/PF, 1xSB/CF, Tank Hunter)  [270]
5    Crusader (5/0, Melta, Pod-SB)  [600]
1    Crusader (5/0, Melta, BP/PF, Pod-SB)  [135]
2    Castellan, SS/LC, Tank Hunter  [216]
2    Terminator Cmd (2xCML/SB/PF, 1xSB/PF, 1xSS/PW), Tank Hunter  [474]
6    Land Speeder Typhoon (4xHB/Typhoon ML, 2xMM/Typhoon ML)  [450]
Total    4xTH-CML, 2xCML, 6xTML, 2xMM, 4xHB        [2500]

This one loses a shooter, but gains fast MM on the Typhoons and a PF Crusader squad.  It also would be easier to salvage 50 points for Terminator armor by canning the PF, MM and CF on the Elite Terminator squad.

Another variation to the second list would be to replace the Assault Terminators with the Ven Dread and then be able to plow points back into the Crusader squads.  Why do that?  To get a shooter back and use my HQ Terminator squads with LC, PW and 3x PF as my counter charge capability. 

Discussing our two named leaders over on Marshal Laeroth's blog, I was struck by a fun thought.  Excuse the strange layout, but it is two troops and two HQ choices officially.  Of course, since two of the three HQs are tied to a Troop choice they can pop out also. 

First up, the Lord Marshal Helbrecht himself:
Helbrecht [175]
Helbrecht's HomeBoyz - Command Squad, (9/5, 1xNarthicum, 1xSergeant w/ Term Honors/BP/PF, 1xCompany Champion w/ CS/BP/PW, 2xMeltaguns, the rest with BP/CCW and everybody with Furious Charge); all this packed into...
Helbrecht's Ride - Land Raider Crusader, Blessed Hull, Smoke, Searchlight [568]

Grimaldus comes next:
Grimaldus w/ his three Cenobytes[195]
Grimaldus' Gang - Crusader Squad (6/5, 1xBP/PF, 1xMeltagun, all the rest with BP/CCW); all this packed into...
Grimaldus'  Ride - Land Raider Crusader, Blessed Hull, Smoke, Searchlight [440]

And as no Black Templar Parade is complete, here comes the Emperor's Champion of the Crusading Pimp Parade:
Emperor's Champion w/ Accept Any Challenge, No Matter The Odds [140]
Champion's Crew - Crusader Squad (8/6, 1xBP/PF, 1xMeltagun, all the rest BP/CCW); all this packed into...
Champion's  Ride - Land Raider Crusader, Blessed Hull, Smoke, Searchlight [482]

Sporting 3xTL AssCans, 3x MultiMelta and 18xTL Bolters in that AV14, this could be a fun ride to get into, but getting out is when the party starts.  Coming from assault vehicles, I guess I can figure it on the charge:

Helbrecht & the HomeBoyz:
At I6: 5+D3 PW attacks at ST5
At I5: 3 PW attacks + 34 attacks at ST5
At I1: 3 PF attacks at ST9

Grimaldus & his Gang:
At I5: 6 PW attacks at ST4
At I4: 29 attacks at ST4
At I3: 6 attacks at ST3
At I1: 2 attacks at ST8

Emperor's Champion & the Golden Throne Crew:
At I5: 4 PW attacks at ST6
At I4: 38 attacks at ST4
At I1: 2 attacks at ST8

It may not be Assault Terminators, but I bet someone will know they have been hit...

What punches through most armor like a hot knife through butter?  MELTA!  Well, mostly it does.  There is that nagging issue over the fact that it has no multiple fire option except in squadrons or squads with multiple melta weapons.  So BS4, the mighty Space Marines miss one time in three.  We won't talk about the lesser BS armies.  Mostly, the issue is cracking AV14, which is the only place melta really shines, but I'd submit that multiple lascannons or TH krak missiles can do the trick.

Consider, before we get to AV, we have to hit, so what are our chances?
Melta = 2/3
LC= 2/3
TLLC= 8/9
Typhoon = 1-1/3 (2-2/3 for a pair of them)
Cyclone = 1-1/3 (2-2/3 for a pair of them)

Melta being AP1 also gets the nifty +1 to damage, so we can figure the chance to hit and kill assuming we get a penetration.  Unfortunately glances cannot be figured here but they only give a minor bonus to the melta, but it does increase as the AV goes up.

Melta = 1/3 chance of kill on penetration.
LC = 2/9 chance of kill on penetration
TLLC = 8/27 chance of kill on penetration
TH Cyclone = 4/9 chance of kill on penetration (8/9 for two of them)
Typhoon = same as Cyclone.

This shows that the Cyclone and Typhoon actually have a better chance of killing if they get penetration than a melta does.  Of course, this is an artifact of getting two shots.

Penetration chances (NOTE: at over 1/2 range melta penetrates like a Typhoon, but gets +1 on damage roll):
    AV10:     Melta                     1/36 glance, 35/36 pen   
                    LC/TH Cyclone    1/6 glance, 5/6 pen
                    Typhoon              1/6 glance, 2/3 pen
    AV11:    Melta                      1/18 glance, 11/12 pen
                    LC/TH Cyclone 1/6 glance, 2/3 pen
                    Typhoon            1/6 glance, 1/2 pen
    AV12:    Melta                    1/12 glance, 5/6 pen
                    LC/TH Cyclone 1/6 glance, 1/2 pen
                    Typhoon            1/6 glance, 1/3 pen
    AV13:    Melta                    1/9 glance, 13/18 pen
                    LC/TH Cyclone 1/6 glance, 1/3 pen
                    Typhoon            1/6 glance, 1/6 pen
    AV14:    Melta                     5/36 glance, 21/36 pen
                    LC/TH Cyclone 1/6 glance, 1/6 pen
                    Typhoon            1/6 glance, NO pen

Now instead of comparing a melta vs a lascannon (as is often done), let's compare actual weapon layouts on different units and see what the chances end up.  For example, a MM Speeder vs AV14 has a nice 7/36 (19.4%) chance of getting a kill.  A pair of them would double that to 7/18 (38.9%).  Three of them would make it 7/12 (58.3%).  The chance to kill on glance would add a couple of percentage points.

A TriLas vs AV14, it gets 10/81(12% chance), the TH Cyclone Term squad has a 4/27 (14.8% chance).  If we assume that the Speeder has to spend at least one turn maneuvering to get that 12" melta shot, then it is actually more likely that the TriLas and TH Cyclone squad will get the kill.

The melta gets 32.4% vs AV10, the TriLas has a 61.7% chance, the Terminators would have a74.1% chance.  A whole lot more likely.

This could take more grinding, but the main reason to take melta is that dice roll, winner take all to kill that Land Raider outright in one shot.

The Khorne army consisted of:
Kharne
Plain Autocannon Predator (no sponsons)
2x Vindicators
6x Berserker squads of eight CSMs with a Power Fist in each, Fearless & Furious Assault.

All the vehicles were demon possessed I think.
EC-AAC
Venerable Dreadnought (TLLC/HF/DCCW, EA, Tank Hunter) in Drop Pod with Deathwind Missile Launcher.*
2x Terminator (2xCyclone ML/Storm Bolter/Power Fist, 2xSB/PF, 1x SB/CF, Tank Hunter)
3x Crusader (5/1, Melta) In Pod w/ SB, one Squad has Bolters, two havet BP/CCW
2x Crusader (5/1, Melta, PF) In Pod w/ SB,  one Squad has Bolters, the other BP/CCW
3x Land Speeder Typhoon Squadrons of 2x LS-Ty (Heavy Bolter/Typhoon ML)
* Deathwind in the Dreadnought Pod is just because I had 20 points left over and didn't have any more models left to easily work in.

I was hoping for a different opponent, but after last week, I took what I could get.  I was there with an 1850 list where I added in the 5th Crusader squad and some stray Neophytes, so to get to 2000 I added Deathwinds to my eight pods and pulled one of the Neophytes.

Since I forgot my notebook, I didn't get a good play by play on this, but I do have some impressions:
1) I've made up tokens for Weapon Destroyed/Wrecked for the pods and will be making some crater circles for exploding pods.  This was because as I hammered down in a mass, to make it easier to move and deal with stuff I pulled the pods, which allowed a lot better movement for my opponent.
2) Beat my head in enough of this one, worked okay the last time, but the Speeders must start on the board, even if all they are doing is hiding, but hopefully to do the sniping.  Waiting until the pods drop to start bursting transports is a no-go.
3) I'm dropping too aggressively, I need to back off and work on that, dropping back out of assault range.  I need to remember that firepower works real well.  The urge to keep a castled opponent penned in must be overcome, if they don't maneuver, then the incoming units don't have a target to strike.  The objective
4) The Deathwinds were murderous and well worth the points.  Hits on Obliterators, Terminators and Marines fell to them, not in great numbers, but more than enough to justify the 160 points I spent.  However, the great effectiveness depended on aggressive dropping, so the bonus is conflict with #3 above.
5) I'm really underwhelmed by the Dreadnoughts.  They are one shot wonders, which means on average, for three droping, I'll get 2 hits, which will probably penetrate in melta range vs. transports.  Pretty much it is an 11/36 chance of wrecking/exploding a transport per shot (in melta range, little better than 1/6 outside).  Then everything they need to throw at the Dreads fires at them until they are eliminated.  I can try backing off with the drop and hiding behind the pod which may work out, especially if I drop less aggressively.  Which leads me to only having a Ven DN with TLLC/HF/Tank Hunter (or an assault cannon which gives about the same chance to kill all the way out to 24") and a couple of Term Squads.  I need to fiddle a bit more.
6) Part of the benefit of the Castellan's squad is having two power weapons available for first striking, but I think the idea of a pair of Term squads will work better.

Oh, I got my butt kicked (KP mission again by choice), but I will admit I had a heck of a lot of fun.  Lots of brutal close range firefights with plenty of assaulty action.  Hysterical RZ rolls where I failed three of them and fell back out of range of being in assault range but still managed to be far enough away to regroup to shoot again.  The Emperor's Champion first got three personal kills on 1k Son's Marines (could not reach the Aspiring Sorc), survived a charge from a Demon Prince (1 wound taken) then turned and lashed out scoring three wounds against the Demon Prince before dying to the combined attacks of the DP, AS and the last couple of 1k Sons Marines.  I just had too many KP available, so even though the dead models on the side were nice to look at, there were too many large units on his side.